International Planning for an Uncertain Climatic Future
PPJV staff led a team of regional experts in remote-sensing/GIS, landscape ecology, and spatial statistics to facilitate regional conservation planning. We developed a rigorously validated, coherent, and spatially explicit GIS database describing spatial and temporal variation in 1) wetland abundance and condition, 2) upland conditions, and 3) primary productivity that spans the US-Canada border. We then used our database to develop predictive models of the distribution and abundance of waterfowl using non-linear statistical techniques.
This project is a top priority for the PPJV and the Prairie Habitat Joint Venture because we need to understand waterfowl responses to climatic variation across the entire PPR to plan for climate change. Preliminary models explain up to 76% of the variation in waterfowl population estimates by year and indicate climatic variable are strong predictors of both distribution and abundance.
Partners: Prairie Pothole Joint Venture, Prairie Habitat Joint Venture, Northern Great Plains Joint Venture, NAWMP-NSST, USFWS-HAPET, Ducks Unlimited, The Nature Conservancy