Article

Wetland Hydrologic Dynamics and Duck Productivity are Declining in the Prairie Pothole Region, and They are Linked

Key Takeaway

Duck productivity is linked to wetlands that cycle between wet and dry conditions. These cycles act like a reset button, recycling nutrients and supporting the plants and insects that provide food and cover for ducks.

  • Wet-dry cycles support productive wetlands. Drying and refilling help create the food and cover ducklings need.
  • Conservation should consider how wetlands Seasonal and semi-permanent wetlands that occasionally dry out are especially important for healthy duck broods.
  • Land conversion can disrupt wet-dry cycles. Converting grasslands to cropland, draining wetlands, and moving water from smaller wetlands into larger ones can stabilize water levels, reduce natural wetland function, and lower habitat quality for ducks.

Abstract

The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is a globally important area hosting >50 % of North America’s breeding ducks. Ducks in the PPR depend on wetlands and grasslands which have experienced accelerated losses in extent and quality due to agriculture. While other bird populations have declined, duck abundance reached record highs recently (2013–2017). We explored this discontinuity by examining monitoring data for trends in pond numbers (wetlands with ponded water) and interannual dynamics (water-level dynamics indexed by interannual change in pond numbers) and how those factors influenced duck productivity in the PPR during 1976–2019. Over time, pond numbers increased but their interannual dynamics declined, indicating stabilization of an ecosystem evolved with a dynamic climate. Our models accounted for 67 and 71 % of variation in productivity of PPR-obligate gadwall (Mareca strepera) and redheads (Aythya americana), respectively. Breeding productivity of these sentinel species was positively correlated with pond abundance and dynamics, and systematically declined. Accordingly, our analyses revealed sensitivity of breeding ducks to systematic change in the PPR previously obscured by increasingly abundant pond numbers. Interannual pond dynamics improved duck productivity and pond dynamics have declined indicating a de facto 44-year decline in duck productivity which is likely driven by water-level stabilization decreasing quality of brood-rearing wetlands. Residual temporal effects indicated that productivity has also declined for other reasons, such as agricultural land use changes. While mechanisms behind these correlations are speculative, they demonstrate the importance of further understanding land use and climate changes in the PPR for conservation of these important species and ecosystems.

Related Resources

  • Healthy Prairie Wetlands Need Periodic Dry Phases — a plain-language explanation from the Prairie Pothole Joint Venture.
  • Prairie wetland wet-dry cycle graphic — an illustration of the cycles that support wetland productivity. [Add the resource link when available.]
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Citation

Michael J. Anteau, Michael L. Szymanski, Aaron T. Pearse, “Wetland hydrologic dynamics and duck productivity are declining in the Prairie Pothole Region, and they are linked,” Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, Volume 29, 2026,101073, ISSN 2665-9727, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2025.101073.