The PPJV is continually working to strengthen the science foundation for bird habitat conservation. This science focuses on addressing the partnership’s priority information needs for wetland and grassland conservation in the Prairie Pothole Region. Many of these projects seek to improve understanding of species-habitat relationships and quantify impacts to birds from land-use and environmental change. Monitoring and evaluation projects are also vital to help the partnership adaptively refine conservation delivery strategies and important programs. Explore and learn about our exciting Science in Action!
Climate & Land-Use Change
The loss of wetland and grassland habitats from expanding row crop agriculture and energy development are primary land-use changes that impact bird populations in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Additionally, climate change increases uncertainty around future environmental patterns and threatens to intensify recent trends in land-use change and impacts to birds and other wildlife. Synergistic effects between climate and land-use may increase habitat loss and result in decreased resiliency to weather extremes. Consequently, the PPJV partnership has made substantial science investments over the last decade to guide conservation strategies and address land-use change and climate impacts on birds and their habitats in the PPR.
Climate Change & Birds
The potential for climate change to alter wetland hydrology and grassland resiliency and exacerbate impacts on birds from historic habitat loss is a primary concern for the PPJV. Indirect impacts from climate change resulting in warmer temperatures and wetter conditions may support further expansion of row crop agriculture and conversion from grazing-based land uses. Uncertainty related to climate change impacts requires the PPJV partnership to carefully evaluate our conservation strategies to ensure they are based on the best and most recent science, support climate resiliency, and afford opportunities for birds and people in the PPR to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Learn more about climate change, birds, and conservation here:
An Assessment of Re-Directing Breeding Waterfowl Conservation
This paper evaluated the risk of refocusing breeding waterfowl conservation efforts eastward in the PPR due to recent projections of climate change. Findings indicated that unprotected wetland and grassland habitats in the western and central portions of the PPR are important for maintaining waterfowl carrying capacity and productivity, and climate change effects are highly uncertain. Therefore, continuing the current focus of habitat protection appears to be the most cost-effective approach for breeding waterfowl habitat conservation efforts.
Partners: USFWS-HAPET, USDA
Waterfowl Conservation in the US Prairie Pothole Region: Confronting the Complexities of Climate Change
Led by HAPET, this project explored trends in wetland pond numbers, precipitation, and hydroperiod relative to climate change. Overall, it suggested that direct effects of climate change on prairie pothole wetlands and waterfowl may be overshadowed by indirect effects such as intensified land use and increased pressure to drain wetlands.
Partners: USFWS-HAPET, USFWS-Division of Migratory Bird Management
Climate-Proofing Our Prairies
This project seeks to improve the climate resiliency of grassland restoration efforts by developing information and tools to enhance the genetic diversity of prairie restorations and seedings. Check out the great stories produced by this project over at The Nature Conservancy’s website!
Partners: The Nature Conservancy, Wildlife Conservation Society, PPJV
Limited shifts in the distribution of migratory bird breeding habitat density in response to future changes in climate
Previous modeling efforts suggested that climate change would result in a shift of suitable breeding habitat from the central to the southeast portion of the PPR. This research applied new models and climate projections and found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds in the PPR would shift in the future. Areas in the PPR that currently support the highest densities of intact wetland basins, and thus support the largest numbers of breeding-duck pairs, will likely also be the places most critical to maintaining continental waterfowl populations in an uncertain future.
Partners: USGS-NPWRC, USGS-North Central Climate Adaptation Center
Prerequisites for Understanding Climate-Change Impacts on Northern Prairie Wetlands
Previous modeling efforts suggested that climate change would result in a shift of suitable breeding habitat from the central to the southeast portion of the PPR. This research applied new models and climate projections and found no evidence that the distribution of May ponds in the PPR would shift in the future. Areas in the PPR that currently support the highest densities of intact wetland basins, and thus support the largest numbers of breeding-duck pairs, will likely also be the places most critical to maintaining continental waterfowl populations in an uncertain future.
Partners: USGS-NPWRC, USGS-North Central Climate Adaptation Center
Energy Development & Birds
Oil and gas development does not reduce duck pair abundance in the Prairie Pothole Region
Conducted in the Bakken Oil Formation, results of this research were variable but found that changes in duck pair abundance from energy development were relatively small. This research recommends the continued use of existing conservation tools to identify important grassland and wetland resources in the region.
Partners: USFWS-HAPET, Ducks Unlimited, NDGFD, PPJV, Central Flyway Council, Minnesota Research Council
Proximity to oil wells in North Dakota does not impact nest success of ducks but lowers nest densities
Conducted in the Bakken Oil Formation, this research found that duck nest survival was highest at sites with a higher percent of grassland, but detected no effect on nest survival from oil and gas extraction activity. Estimated nest density declined at energy development sites, but there was no evidence that ducks avoided energy infrastructure at smaller scales. These mixed results highlight the resiliency of dabbling ducks to environmental change and the need to continue conserving these landscapes, recognizing that parcels further from oil and gas development may support higher nest densities.
Partners: Louisiana State University, USFWS-HAPET, North Dakota Game and Fish Department, Delta Waterfowl, Ducks Unlimited
Impacts of oil and gas development on duck brood abundance
Conducted in the Bakken Oil Formation, this partnership project observed a negative relationship between brood abundance and oil and gas disturbance. However, predictions suggested that less than 1% of the observed broods were affected. Considering this relatively weak relationship and the consistent role of wetlands as the primary factor influencing brood abundance, authors recommended that managers continue to focus conservation efforts on landscapes with high densities of small, unprotected wetlands, even in the presence of oil and gas development.
Partners: Ducks Unlimited, USFWS-HAPET, North Dakota Game and Fish Department, PPJV, USFWS, Minnesota Research Council, Central Flyway Council
Estimating offsets for avian displacement effects of anthropogenic impacts
This paper describes a method for quantifying the amount of habitat needed to provide equivalent biological value for birds displaced by energy and transportation infrastructure. By converting biological value to traditional units of measure in which land is described and purchased or sold, this framework and decision support tool lends itself readily to the delivery of offsetting measures such as easement protections and restoration projects.
Partners: USGS-NPWRC, USFWS-HAPET, NextEra Energy, Ducks Unlimited, USFWS
Effect of wind energy development on breeding duck densities in the Prairie Pothole Region
This research found that densities of duck pairs on wetlands were generally lower in wind sites. The displacement observed in this study may influence the prioritization of grassland and wetland resources for conservation when existing decision support tools based on breeding-pair density are used. Estimates of displacement provided by this research can be used to inform the development of offset projects for wind energy infrastructure.
Partners: USFWS-HAPET, Ducks Unlimited, USFWS-National Wildlife Refuge System
Influence of Wind Turbines on Presence of Willet, Marbled Godwit, Wilson’s Phalarope and Black Tern on Wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota and South Dakota
Models indicated that species occurrence varied with wetland characteristics and among sites and years. Occurrence was not substantially reduced on either site but was consistently lower on one of the wind energy sites for three shorebird species. Results suggest that wetlands have conservation value when wind turbines are present, but additional research is needed to better understand other potential and cumulative effects.
Partners: USFWS-HAPET, Ducks Unlimited, USGS-NPWRC, USFWS-National Wildlife Refuge System
The effects of a large-scale wind farm on breeding season survival of female mallards and blue-winged teal in the Prairie Pothole Region
This research identified that collision mortalities for dabbling ducks were rare. The limited number of collisions observed suggests that wind turbines had no direct effect on female duck survival. Conservation strategies that include protection of wetland and grassland habitat in wind-developed landscapes will most likely not cause a reduction in survival of breeding females due to collisions with wind turbines.
Partners: University of North Dakota, Ducks Unlimited, USFWS-National Wildlife Refuge System, USFWS-HAPET, NextEra Energy, USFWS-Mountain-Prairie Region, North Dakota Game and Fish Department
Monitoring & Evaluation
The PPJV’s science foundation and planning tools are used to inform many important conservation programs that restore, enhance, or protect grassland and wetland habitats in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Evaluating the effectiveness of these programs and addressing key planning uncertainties are paramount to implementing strategic habitat conservation. Consequently, the PPJV partnership has a long history in developing robust science to evaluate program outcomes for priority birds. Periodic evaluations and planning updates help the partnership refine conservation programs and adjust to changes in the PPR.
Four-Square-Mile Breeding Waterfowl Survey
Originally designed and implemented by scientists at the Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center in 1987, the Four-Square-Mile Survey (FSMS) is recognized by the PPJV as the primary method to monitor the abundance, distribution, and productivity of breeding waterfowl. The FSMS is coordinated and managed by the USFWS Habitat and Population Evaluation Team and implemented annually. Within the PPR, USFWS staff and collaborators visit 704 survey plots in May and early June to collect field data. Pair survey data are integrated with annual remote sensing of wetland condition to produce estimates of breeding pair abundance for 13 duck species and production estimates for the five most common duck species, as well as wetland habitat conditions for most of the U.S. PPR.
The FSMS protocol was originally designed to understand the contributions of each of three ownership strata (private, USFWS Wetland Easements, and USFWS Fee Title) to the overall population. Beginning in the mid-1990s, FSMS data were used to develop the “Thunderstorm Map” – a well-known decision support tool that identifies priority landscapes for conservation actions to benefit breeding waterfowl. Numerous additional applications of FSMS data have developed over the years, extending the purpose of the FSMS beyond its original intent. Data collected from these surveys have now become a primary source for a variety of spatial modeling products that guide easement acquisition, evaluate conservation program outcomes, describe wetland dynamics in the PPR, and inform models for non-game birds. The FSMS and its products were models for the concept of Strategic Habitat Conservation adopted by the